business cycle dating committee national bureau of economic research this report is also available as a pdf file cambridge september 20 2010 the business cycle dating committee of the national bureau of economic research met yesterday by conference call.
The business cycle describes the rise and fall in production output of goods and services in an economy business cycles are generally measured using rise and fall in real inflationadjusted.
The national bureau of economic research nber business cycle dating committee has been dating the us expansions and recessions for the past 60 years the members of the committee reach a subjective consensus about business cycle turning.
In economics a recession is a business cycle contraction which results in a general slowdown in economic activity macroeconomic indicators such as gdp gross domestic product investment spending capacity utilization household income business profits and inflation fall while bankruptcies and the unemployment rate rise in the united kingdom it is defined as a negative economic growth.
The business cycle also known as the economic cycle or trade cycle is the downward and upward movement of gross domestic product gdp around its longterm growth trend the length of a business cycle is the period of time containing a single boom and contraction in sequence these fluctuations typically involve shifts over time between periods of relatively rapid economic growth expansions.
The chart below illustrates the average of the big four percent is off its alltime high for three months in 2015 july through september the index hovered a mere 010 below is alltime high in.
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the nber business cycle dating committee which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions.
The business cycle is the periodic but irregular upanddown movement in economic activity measured by fluctuations in real gross domestic product gdp and other macroeconomic variables.
Preliminary versions of economic research did consumers want less debt consumer credit demand versus supply in the wake of the 20082009 financial crisis.